UAAPS77 Men’s Final4 Preview: Aggression Is Key

also seen in TieBreaker Times

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We now have arrived in the Final Four. The men’s semi-final matches will be interesting to watch as both match-ups offset each other in terms of individual skills. Both UST-NU and Ateneo-Adamson are tied head-to-head in the eliminations, and these 4 teams will duke it out in tomorrow’s showdowns. Ateneo and UST both have the twice-to-beat advantage coming into the semis – can NU and Adamson overcome this? Check out our takes on both matches below.

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UST Growling Tigers vs NU Bulldogs

Rank	UST	NU
Spike	3	1
Atk Eff%	25%	27%
Block	5	1
Rebound %	33%	32%
Serve	2	3
Ace per set	1.19	1.02
Dig	2	8
Digs per set	5.38	4.57
Set	1	4
Exc Set per set	8.56	7.98
Pass	4	3
Pass Eff%	27%	29%

Head-to-head, UST and NU are tied in the elimination rounds – NU winning the first round in 5 sets, while UST able to get their revenge in the second round by winning in 3 sets. In their latest duel, despite NU being number one in attacks in the league, UST was able to mount more in that particular game (46 vs 36) - this was due to the excellent playmaking led by Paul Castillo and Timothy Tajanlangit.

For tomorrow’s game, NU being the last in the ranks in terms of digging, must try to be able to catch opponent attacks, especially from UST’s main scorer, Mark Alfafara. Despite NU’s lackluster floor defense, they make up for it in offense with an attack efficiency of 27%. UST has better serving, with more aces per set than NU, but they need to pick up their offense in other areas – service aces won’t take you places if the opponent is receiving the ball better (NU passing efficiency 29% vs 27% of UST). UST also has better setting and playmaking, but attack conversion is more important in winning the game.

Keys to the match:

UST

Given NU is # 1 in attacking, blocking must be imperative for UST. Based on their elimination games, they won the game if they elevate their blocking significantly.

    NU out blocked UST (12 vs 10)

UST	WON	LOST	AVE
BLK/SET	2.51	1.67	2.27
REBOUND%	33.44%	30.42%	32.69%

Limit errors in all aspects. If they do commit errors, they must be able to overcome this with consistent attacking.

Despite UST having more atks (62 vs 59), they also committed more errors (26 vs 19). Atk-to-error ratio is higher for NU (3.10 vs 2.38), meaning UST’s atks are not enough to compensate for errors committed.

NU

Continue aggression on attacks, but they should be wary of attack errors.

NU’s success% on attacks higher by a margin (40.41% vs UST’s 40.00%).

NU	WON	LOST	AVE
ATK/SET	14.30	8.61	12.29
HITTING IPE%	83.9%	78.1%	82.2%

Errors must be less than 60% of points contributed by the team (atks, blks, aces).

NU’s error weight (errors vs points contributed) is at 25.00% (vs UST’s 33.77%).

Prediction: NU can extend this to a second game if they keep up their attacks and if UST cannot control their own errors (for the season, UST is net negative on errors on their won points while NU is positive).

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 Ateneo Blue Eagles vs Adamson Soaring Falcons

Rank	Ateneo	AdU
Spike	2	4
Atk Eff%	25%	18%
Block	3	2
Rebound %	33%	33%
Serve	1	4
Ace per set	1.37	1.00
Dig	5	1
Digs per set	5.25	6.35
Set	2	3
Exc Set per set	8.42	8.33
Pass	2	1
Pass Eff%	32%	33%

Adamson and Ateneo are also tied in the elimination rounds – Adamson winning the first clash with a four set win while Ateneo won the next one in straight sets. Ateneo was able to produce more attack points (40 vs 22) in their second round match, backed by defense on digs (16 vs 9) and passing (27 vs 17), overcoming Adamson, the team known to be the best defensive team in the league.

This match up will be all about offense vs defense – Ateneo outranks Adamson in terms of attacks, serves, and sets/playmaking, while Adamson is the league’s king in defense, being #1 in digging and passing, and #2 in blocking. For tomorrow’s match, Adamson should bank on their steady defense to be able to win the game (both floor and net). Ateneo has to find the seams of the blocks, or use the block whenever spiking, and avoid Rence Melgar as much as possible who is the #1 libero in the league.

Keys to the match:

Ateneo

• Continue to be aggressive on the serve. Despite committing more errors, they won the games where the team took more risk on the service line.

ATENEO	WON	LOST	AVE
ACES/SET	1.74	0.36	1.37
FAULTS/SET	4.08	2.71	3.71

• Errors should not be more than 50% of the point contribution of the team.

Adamson

• Be able to successfully convert more points from attacks. Their contribution from attacks are significantly lower when they lose a game (by more than half compared to games won)

ADAMSON		WON	LOST	AVE
ATK/SET		13.94	7.68	11.61

• Continue aggression on the block by getting at least 3 blocks per set.

Prediction: Ateneo, if they continue to dominate on all offensive skills (on the average, Ateneo has more effort on point contribution than Adamson, i.e. Ateneo gets points from their own atks, blks and aces while Adamson’s differential in winning relies more on opponent errors than their own efforts)

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Who will win? For men’s games, the more aggressive teams usually win the game – attacks usually carry the team to the top. However, it’s all about balance in crucial matches like these – aggression must be controlled with poise and focus. Breaks of the game are defined not by who is luckier but who is in control.