Saturday 7 March 2015
The twice-to-beat advantage of De La Salle University was nullified last Wednesday when NU beat them in straight sets to force a do-or-die match today. Stats for the previous match below:
It's clear from the numbers above what made the difference -
NU's dominance in all offensive stops (including kill blocks) overwhelmed La
Salle's defense. La Salle's digging is their main pitfall -
although they have out-dug the Lady Bulldogs in excellent digs per set and dig
conversion (these two metrics mainly measure how many of their successful
attacks came from successful digs), their dig rate% is at a
dismal 63%, far from their season average of 76.8%.
This means that they were able to dig NU's attacks only 63% of the
time - their digs and dives are not enough to keep the ball alive
during rallies, which bumps up NU's attacking %. Furthermore, La
Salle's offense mainly comes from in-system plays (exc sets 9.33 vs
NU's 6.67, first ball offense% 28% vs NU's 21%),
but they are unable to capitalize on this because NU gets points even
from non-excellent plays - a testament to their attacking prowess.
Remember that volleyball uses a rally point system - any point is gold,
whether it be coming from in-system plays or not. What La Salle needs to do
this afternoon is to hustle - they need to produce points from
all corners, and keep in mind that mid-game adjustments to an offensive
system is needed, especially facing NU's rejuvenated team (with momentum on
their side as well).
Keys to the Match - De La Salle University
- Offense should have more power so
as to startle the opponent and force them to commit errors. In
their previous matches, La Salle was able to win because they force their
opponents to commit more errors than them.
- However, they shouldn't just be
dependent upon NU's errors for their points. More importantly, they should
be efficient in attacking as much as possible. In the
previous game, La Salle was down to an attack efficiency of only 13%,
very far from their season average of 22.1% - they can't
depend solely on excellent sets, they need to get points from any
opportunity possible.
Keys to the Match - National University
- Continue receiving
opponent's serve well so as to set up attacks without
distractions
- NU's biggest improvement in the
semis is their ability to efficiently play the ball by not
committing errors. In the previous game, their error weight (error to
point contribution) is down to just 25%, while their season
average was at 46.0% . This is crucial especially when trying to side-out
on tied scores.
Prediction: NU with momentum on their side, if
they get more point contributions from attacks than La Salle. However, knowing
La Salle's recovery, NU's momentum can be a non-factor.
The first match of the finals series was a doozy for
Ateneo de Manila fans as they were able to win it in 4 sets versus the
defending champions National University. Stats summary for the first match
below:
As you can see above, Ateneo has dominated the game in
almost all skills. Biggest advantages for Ateneo are their attacks and passes: AttackEff%
for Ateneo at 29%, even higher than their eliminations average of 27%,
and their passing% at 89%. Although Ateneo commits more service
errors per set (4.25 vs 2.00), their seemingly inconsistent (i.e. error prone)
service shouldn't be taken lightly: the fact that they have more aces per set
means that they are being aggressive on the serve - Ateneo's main strategy
is to take control of the rally via strong serves so that
the opponent cannot set up good plays for their attackers, which is why NU's
passing% is only at 77%, and can also explain why they have fewer excellent
sets (12.75 vs Ateneo's 14.25) and therefore attacks (49 atks vs Ateneo's 64). NU's
offense suffered because their floor defense cannot hold, and they should
address it this game. For Ateneo, they just need to keep doing what they've
been doing in the first game, but be wary of relaxing as they will be facing of
a more compelled NU team.
Keys to
the Match - National University
- Passing efficiency shouldn't be
below 30% - it is imperative that they must receive the
ball better, not just to avoid giving opponent service aces, but for their
own benefit as well to gain back momentum as well as
better chances of getting a side out. In the elimination rounds, their
average passeff% for won games was 30.2%, and 25.3% for lost games.
- Point contribution of the team
from atks, blks and aces should be at least 70% of total
points won - in other words, they need to be able to take control
of the game. In the game 1 of the finals, their point contribution was
only at 62.8%, which means 37.2% of their won points came
from opponent errors, which is a fatal mistake to make in volleyball - you
cannot just rely on opponent errors to win a game.
Keys to
the Match - Ateneo de Manila University
- Continue to be aggressive
on the serve. Despite committing more errors, they won the games where
the team took more risk on the service line.
- Floor defense
should persist throughout the match, so that they could set up their
attacks well.
Prediction: Ateneo, if NU cannot make the necessary adjustments in
their floor defense.
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